NERC BAL-007-1
How are Energy Reliability Assessments Different than Existing Studies?
Unlike traditional capacity studies, which primarily assess whether sufficient generation capacity is available at a point in time, a Near-Term ERA evaluates hourly energy availability sequentially over the study’s time horizon. Evaluating generator fuel storage levels must occur sequentially through time, making Near-Term ERAs inherently different from conventional capacity assessments. Traditional capacity studies evaluate if there is enough capacity. Near-Term ERAs assess if there is enough energy for every hour throughout the study period.
FernGrid Energy and Energy Reliability Assessments
FernGrid Energy’s Fuel and Energy Security Tool (FEST) was explicitly developed to run Near-Term ERAs for Balancing Authorities, developing generation dispatches for each hour to meet demand and maintain adequate operating reserves. Simultaneously, FEST accounts for interface limits, demand response programs, site generator fuel storage constraints, natural gas pipeline fuel scarcity, and generators’ operating temperature limits. These dispatches are then evaluated to forecast potential Energy Emergencies.
New BAL-007-1 Requirements
As of April 2027, NERC Standard BAL-007-1 will require Balancing Authorities (BAs) to conduct Near Term Energy Reliability Assessments (ERA) that account for:
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Forecasted or assumed hourly load profiles
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Generation operational limitations (including fuel supply and temperature considerations)
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Energy transfers with other BAs
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Known Bulk Electric System (BES) Transmission constraints that limit the transfer of generated power to loads.
These Near Term ERAs must forecast Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA2 & EEA3) and consist of a set of Scenarios, starting with a base Scenario developed from expected system conditions then considering other Scenarios that stress the system due with the following assumptions:
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Higher than forecasted load profiles
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The effects of an energy supply contingency
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The effects of a fuel supply contingency
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Other stressed conditions with historical precedent
